The UEFA Champions League 2024–25 semi-final second leg between Inter Milan and Barcelona promises another thrilling chapter in this legendary European rivalry. After a pulsating 3-3 first leg draw in Spain, all eyes now turn to the San Siro, where Inter look to protect a 15-match unbeaten home run in the Champions League.
🔥 Key Storylines:
- Barcelona are favored by the Opta supercomputer, with a 56% chance of reaching the final, compared to Inter’s 44%.
- Despite this, Barça’s record in Italy is poor: only five wins in 24 away UCL matches, and just one victory in six visits to Inter.
- Yamal and Raphinha are the attacking stars for Barca—combining for 25+ goal involvements in this UCL campaign.
- Inter, meanwhile, could be without captain Lautaro Martínez, but boast the firepower of Thuram and Dumfries, who were instrumental in the first leg.
⚽ Inter vs Barcelona: Head-to-Head
- This marks the 18th European meeting between the two clubs.
- Barcelona have not reached a Champions League final since 2015, while Inter were finalists in 2023.
- Both teams rested key players domestically, underlining the importance of this tie.
📊 Opta Supercomputer Prediction:
- Barcelona win: 42.7%
- Inter win: 33.0%
- Draw: 24.3%
While history favors Inter at home, and Barcelona’s record in Italy is not great, Opta’s data still gives the edge to Barça. However, injuries and form will make this one of the tightest second-leg battles in recent memory.
Injury list
Both teams are dealing with injuries that neither manager would have wanted at this stage. For Barcelona, the absence of Alejandro Balde is a significant defensive loss. He would have been an ideal foil to counter Denzel Dumfries’ attacking runs down the right flank.
Meanwhile, Robert Lewandowski is reportedly fit again, but whether he will start remains to be seen. Inter Milan may also be without the services of Lautaro Martínez. Although some reports suggest he is recovering well, the real question is whether he’ll be ready in time — and if so, whether he’ll be fit enough to start..
Possible starting line-ups
Conclusion:
Even with all these compelling statistics, this is a difficult game to predict. While Barcelona remains the slight favorite according to the Opta supercomputer (42.7% vs. Inter’s 33.0%), the momentum and tactical edge may be tilting toward Inter Milan. Their counter-attacking efficiency, combined with Denzel Dumfries’ explosive form on the right flank, proved largely effective against Barcelona’s high line in the first leg.
Inzaghi and his men, however, will need to do a better job of containing the brilliant Lamine Yamal. While this Barcelona side is more than just its teenage superstar, Yamal made a massive difference in the first leg, perhaps even capitalizing on the nervousness of the Nerazzurri defense. Even when double-marked, he managed to slip between a well-organized backline and score a stunning goal.
Question marks remain over Lautaro Martínez and whether he will feature after suffering an injury in the first leg. The ultimate question is: who will partner Marcus Thuram up front if the Inter captain doesn’t start? The most likely options are Marko Arnautović and Mehdi Taremi, but neither has consistently performed at a high enough level to truly threaten the Barcelona defense.
With the second leg set at the fortress of San Siro, Inter’s familiarity with the venue, their compact 3-5-2 system, and recent attacking form could give them the edge needed to reach the final. However, Barcelona will need to shore up defensively and avoid leaving space in behind—something they struggled with in the 3-3 draw.
In theory, Inter Milan may be better positioned to win the second leg and advance to the UEFA Champions League Final. But one thing works against them: the defensive solidity that carried them throughout the season appears to be fading. This team is leaking goals, and Barcelona have shown time and again that they’re capable of overturning any deficit.
When Inter dropped back in the first leg after going 2-0 up, they conceded quickly. It is very easy to “sit on the fence” in a case such as this, but I have chosen not to and draw a conclusion. Inter will have to deliver a near-perfect defensive performance, and while it is not impossible, Barcelona seems to have a knack for amazing comebacks this season and will likely break the hearts of Inter fans at San Siro and edge their way through to the final.
❓ Fan Poll:
Who will advance to the UEFA Champions League Final?
Cast your vote and share your predictions in the comments below
🔥 Who will reach the #UCL Final ?
— Extra Time (@EXTV_TT) May 5, 2025
San Siro is set for a 🔥 semi-final second leg!
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🔵⚫ Inter Milan or 🔴🔵 FC Barcelona?#UefaChampionsLeague #InterBarça #InterMilan #Barcelona
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analyses as we approach this decisive clash in the UEFA Champions League.
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